2.2.1.2. Climate Change Adaptation
Weather is the set of meteorological conditions – wind, rain, snow, sunshine, temperature, etc. – at a particular time
and place. By contrast, the term climate describes the overall long-term characteristics of the weather experienced at a
place.
The climate therefore can be thought of as a long-term summary of weather conditions, taking account of the average
conditions as well as the variability of these conditions. The fluctuations that occur from year to year, and the statistics
of extreme conditions such as severe storms or unusually hot seasons, are part of the climatic variability. Some slowly
changing climatic phenomena can last for whole seasons or even years; the best known of these is the El Niño
phenomenon. Because the climate system is in a constant state of flux and has always exhibited natural fluctuations
and extreme conditions, it is not possible to argue that any single extreme event is attributable to climate change. Only
after a sufficient period and with hundreds of extreme events recorded can scientists determine if a specific event is
within normal historical variation or is due to some other cause such as climate change.
Africa is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate
change because of multiple stresses. Drought will continue to
be a primary concern for many African populations. The
frequency of weather- and climate-related disasters has
increased since the 1970s, and the Sahel and Southern Africa
have become drier during the twentieth century. Water
supplies and agricultural production will become even more
severely diminished. By 2020, in some African countries
agricultural yields could be reduced by as much as 50%. By
the 2080s, the area of arid and semiarid land in Africa will
likely increase by 5-8. A range of studies of national climate
trends in Ethiopia since the 1960’s show that mean
temperatures have increased by 0.5 and 1.3 C3. Rainfall
estimates are much more uncertain, with no significant
change in total rainfall amount, but with changing seasonal
patterns4 and more rain falling in extreme events5.
Natural hazards by themselves do not cause disasters – it is
the combination of an exposed, vulnerable and ill prepared
population or community with a hazard event that results in a
disaster. Climate change will therefore affect disaster risks in
two ways, firstly through the likely increase in weather and
climate hazards, and secondly through increases in the
Agriculture is particularly sensitive to climate change.
Greater total or more intense rainfall across Ethiopia
may increase soil erosion and the incidences of crop
damage. Ethiopia is particularly vulnerable to
accelerated soil erosion because of existing pressures
and degradation on our land area, 79% of which has a
slope of greater than 16%, with 25% having a slope of
greater than 30%. There will also be changes in
production system viability; cropland area and
cropping patterns; pest and disease frequency and
distribution brought about by changes in seasonality;
timing and distribution of rainfall; higher
evapotranspiration; drought and flood damage.
Livestock yields will be impacted directly through
temperature effects on annual growth, milk and wool
production and reproduction; and indirectly by
changes in the quantity and quality of pasture, forage,
grass and disease and increases in parasites. Pastoralist
communities may be particularly negatively impacted
by climate change. The interactions between these
problems and potential benefits of greater CO2
‘fertilization’ are largely unknown.
Climate Resilient Green Economy strategy
(Ethiopia)
3 McSweeney, C., New, M. and Lixcano, G., (2007) Ethiopia – UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles report a 1.3°C increase between 1960 and 2006. Other studies
show a smaller increase, for example: Conway et al report rises of approximately 0.5°C from 1961-2000, in Conway, D. and Schipper, E. L. F. (2011) Adaptation to climate change in
Africa: Challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change 21 (2011), 227–237. Also in the National Adaptation Programme of Action, 2007, the
National Meteorological Agency reports increases of 0.37 0C every 10 years from 1951-2006.
4 Conway, D., Schipper, E. L. F., Mahmud, Yesuf, Menale, Kassie, Persechino, A., and Bereket Kebede. (2007) Reducing Vulnerability in Ethiopia: Addressing the Implications of
Climate Change. Report prepared for DFID and CIDA. University of East Anglia, Norwich.
5 McSweeney et al, 2007, ibid; and Ericksen P, Thornton P, Notenbaert, A, Cramer L, Jones P, Herrero, M. (2011) Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the
global tropics. CCAFS Report No. 5 (advance copy). CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online
at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org.
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